Spring Training Stats.... Do They Matter?

A few weeks ago I was at the ACC watching the Leafs lose to the New York Islanders 5-2. The Leafs had an early 2-1 lead, but four straight goals by the visiting Islanders was more than enough to hand the  once playoff-bound Leafs their 8th straight home loss and send many of their heart-aching fans into various (often drunken) outbursts of "Let's Go Blue Jays!" Whether or not these fans were simply mad at their beloved Leafs continuing downward spiral towards last place in the Eastern Conference or they are actually aware of the Blue Jays' seemingly imminent rise to the spotlight in the world of Toronto sports, it does not matter. Both in Toronto and just about everywhere else in the major leagues the Jays are making a name for themselves
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Although everyone in the history of baseball will say that spring training does not matter, it is still nice to have a winning attitude in an organization. The Blue Jays have the best record in the Majors at 23-7-1 (the 1 is a tie and that pretty much sums up how teams really don't care about the actual outcome of the games.) What does matter however, is the incredible outings that the Jays are getting from their starting rotation and projected opening day bullpen players.

Last year the Jays scored the 6th most runs in the whole major leagues so the fact that we are leading the Majors in runs scored in the spring is just ensuring fans and management that we really don't have to worry about the offence. What is much more impressive and the reason why every fan who has followed spring training cannot wait for this Thursday's season opener is the fact that the jays have given up only 104 runs, good for 2nd best in the majors. The Jays have played 31 games and the only two teams ahead of them, the much improve Miami Marlins and the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals have played 6 and 8 fewer games, respectively. Yes, we are not going up against big league hitters every day and that could (and probably does) have a lot to do with this low total, but that doesn't matter. Our pitchers are hitting their spots (most of the time, other than Cecil's last outing) and they are pitching confidently.

Ricky Romero is pitching unbelievably well, having given up a grand total of 0 earned runs throughout his 4 starts and Brandon Morrow has shown that he is willing and able to become what we all know he can be, an elite pitcher in the major leagues. Jose Bautista has picked up where he left off (except for the last 40 games last season he's been the best hitter in all of baseball) and Henderson Alvarez and J.P. Aaroncibia are looking to have breakout seasons for the Jays. Great (godly if you are Brett Lawrie) springs are an easy way to boost confidence. In order to succeed for the whole season the Jays are going to have to stay healthy and some of the younger guys are really going to have to pick up some of the slack, hopefully they an do it. The Jays open up their season on Thursday against a beaten up and generally mediocre Cleveland team, hopefully they can keep up the torrid pace that they are on right now.

Until Doc comes back and leads the Jays to their first World Series since 1993,
Riley 

Blue Jays in the Free Agent Market

Wouldn’t it be great if come April Albert Pujols was starting at first base for the Blue Jays? Yes. Will this happen? Probably not. The MLB free agent market has just opened and, although the field isn’t deep, the Jays could do some damage. Our only big contracts are ones to Yunel Escobar, Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero, so the Jays are free to do a lot. We, right now, have the fourth lowest payroll in the American League, but we can easily change that. We need a second baseman (Kelly Johnson will be a free agent) we need some help in the bullpen, maybe the starting rotation and an everyday centre fielder wouldn’t hurt. I also wouldn’t mind trading Adam Lind but I know that isn’t going to happen. Either way, though, almost all of our needs can be found in the free agent market.

Let me start with the single worst aspect of the Blue Jays’ game last season, the bullpen. Our bullpen blew us 25 saves in a mere 58 opportunities, that is good for the worst save percentage in the majors. By save percentage I don’t just mean the ninth inning, either, I mean after the starter is pulled and the team has a lead. Now I am not sure if Alex Anthopolous (who has done a great job thus far) is willing to bring in a bunch of bullpen guys, but he should. The star-studded free agent bullpen pitchers include: Johnathon Papelbon (0.93 WHIP this season) Ryan Madson (32 saves) Heath Bell (40+ saves in 3 consecutive seasons) Fransisco Rodriguez (good, best years may be behind him) and Johnathon Broxton (missed last 130 games, high risk signing him, most likely to come to Toronto.) We also need a left handed reliever because right now Luis Perez is the lone southpaw. If Anthopolous doesn’t sign one of these guys or make a trade for a legitimate closer, then this offseason will have been a failure.

Position players: Need: 2B. Could improve: Everywhere except RF, 3B and C

The best case scenario would be for the Jays to sign reigning NL batting champion Jose Reyes (SS) and just move Yunel to 2B, but that probably won’t happen. I know there is talk of getting Aaron Hill back, but we traded him for a reason, I don’t want him back. Anthopolous will most likely have to trade for a second baseman, his first look to go should probably be Colby Rasmus.

Bringing in Grady Sizemore would probably be the best move for the Jays to improve the outfield, but many of us forget that Travis Snider does have the potential to be a 30 home run hitter. Other options include Johnny Damon as OF/DH, Jimmy Rollins as backup infielder, and, of course, either Prince Fielder or Pujols would be nice too. I can’t realistically see the Jays signing any more than one of these players, but Anthopolous knows where the team is right now better than anyone, and I trust him.

Starting Pitchers: Need #2/3 starter. Could improve: #4 starter

The Jays have more than their fair share of #4/5 starters on the active roster. (By #5 I mean the fifth best starter in the rotation) Dustin McGowan, Luis Perez and Jesse Listch can all pitch in this spot, but none of them can pitch in the #2 slot. Brandon Morrow could, but he will probably go 14-12 next year with a 3.80 ERA and 400 K’s, #3 starter material. Kyle Drabek has the stuff… Man, if I had a nickel for every time I have heard that. Obviously big name starter C.J. Wilson would help out the Jays, but he isn’t what we are looking for so Anthopolous won’t sign him. Mark Burhle isn’t what we are looking for either, but he would be a great addition to our pitching staff. We can expect 10-15 wins from him, but his real value will be a veteran presence on one of the youngest pitching staffs in the majors. Other free agent starting pitchers include: Edwin Jackson (extremely inconsistent) Yu Darvish (Chinese Phenom, will end up in New York or Boston) I really can’t see Anthopolous signing any of these guys, so we may be stuck with the same pitching staff (including Kyle Drabek, hopefully) as last season, unless he makes some trades.

This could be an extremely productive offseason, or the Jays could sit back. Either way, I have high hopes, and PREDICTION: The Jays will be in the playoffs before the 2014 season.

On a side note, the best player in the Major Leagues over the last two seasons is Jose Baustista, and he just won his second straight Silver Slugger award as well as becoming only the third player in history to win back-to-back Hank Aaron awards.


Until Albert Pujols hits 50 HR's for the Jays,
- Riley