Spring Training Stats.... Do They Matter?

A few weeks ago I was at the ACC watching the Leafs lose to the New York Islanders 5-2. The Leafs had an early 2-1 lead, but four straight goals by the visiting Islanders was more than enough to hand the  once playoff-bound Leafs their 8th straight home loss and send many of their heart-aching fans into various (often drunken) outbursts of "Let's Go Blue Jays!" Whether or not these fans were simply mad at their beloved Leafs continuing downward spiral towards last place in the Eastern Conference or they are actually aware of the Blue Jays' seemingly imminent rise to the spotlight in the world of Toronto sports, it does not matter. Both in Toronto and just about everywhere else in the major leagues the Jays are making a name for themselves
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Although everyone in the history of baseball will say that spring training does not matter, it is still nice to have a winning attitude in an organization. The Blue Jays have the best record in the Majors at 23-7-1 (the 1 is a tie and that pretty much sums up how teams really don't care about the actual outcome of the games.) What does matter however, is the incredible outings that the Jays are getting from their starting rotation and projected opening day bullpen players.

Last year the Jays scored the 6th most runs in the whole major leagues so the fact that we are leading the Majors in runs scored in the spring is just ensuring fans and management that we really don't have to worry about the offence. What is much more impressive and the reason why every fan who has followed spring training cannot wait for this Thursday's season opener is the fact that the jays have given up only 104 runs, good for 2nd best in the majors. The Jays have played 31 games and the only two teams ahead of them, the much improve Miami Marlins and the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals have played 6 and 8 fewer games, respectively. Yes, we are not going up against big league hitters every day and that could (and probably does) have a lot to do with this low total, but that doesn't matter. Our pitchers are hitting their spots (most of the time, other than Cecil's last outing) and they are pitching confidently.

Ricky Romero is pitching unbelievably well, having given up a grand total of 0 earned runs throughout his 4 starts and Brandon Morrow has shown that he is willing and able to become what we all know he can be, an elite pitcher in the major leagues. Jose Bautista has picked up where he left off (except for the last 40 games last season he's been the best hitter in all of baseball) and Henderson Alvarez and J.P. Aaroncibia are looking to have breakout seasons for the Jays. Great (godly if you are Brett Lawrie) springs are an easy way to boost confidence. In order to succeed for the whole season the Jays are going to have to stay healthy and some of the younger guys are really going to have to pick up some of the slack, hopefully they an do it. The Jays open up their season on Thursday against a beaten up and generally mediocre Cleveland team, hopefully they can keep up the torrid pace that they are on right now.

Until Doc comes back and leads the Jays to their first World Series since 1993,
Riley 

Playoffs?

Whether or not the Toronto Maple Leafs will be playing in mid-April is totally up to them. Right now the Leafs sit in the 7th spot in the Eastern Conference with 62 points, 1 point ahead of Ottawa, 3 points ahead of Florida for 9th and Winnipeg sits 10th with 56 points. As of now it seems unlikely that there will be more than those 10 teams fighting for a playoff spot when the end of the season comes around and there are only 9 points separating 9th from 2nd, so the East, as of now, is wide open. Nevertheless, the Leafs have a very good chance of making the playoffs. With 28 games to go, the Leafs are a mere 6 points back of recently-mediocre Boston for the Northeast division lead, which would move them all the way up the standings into 2nd place.

Great hockey teams (like Detroit and Boston) win the Stanley Cup when they have a hot goalie, that's just the way it is. Good teams (like the Leafs) make the playoffs when they have a hot goalie, and good news for Leafs fans: we have two goalies that are capable of getting hot. James Reimer and Jonas Gustavsson are both B level goalies, and that is okay. As we just saw with Reimer's shutout streak, when a goalie is playing well, the Leafs win. I would not be surprised to see coach Ron Wilson use the "if you win, you play the next game but if you lose, you don't" tactic on these young goaltenders that are both fighting for ice time. If both guys are able to stay healthy and continue to play well, the Buds will make the playoffs.

All good teams need a guy who can just put the puck in the net, the Leafs have that in Phil Kessel. In a losing effort on Tuesday night, Kessel scored his team-leading 30th goal of the season, and it was beautiful. It won't make any highlight reels, but Phil is skating and getting his shots through, his quick release is killer for goalies and as he does here, when he is cutting across the middle of the ice the shot to the far side is an impossible save for the goalie as he is tracking Phil through the middle of the ice. Whether you like him or not, Kessel is our best player and it is awesome to see him finally playing like it. In his first two years with Toronto he had -8 and -20 ratings, this year he is +7. In his first two years his shooting percentages (goals per shot) were 10.1% and 9.8%, this year he is at a career high of 15.6%. If Kessel and the two goalies stay consistent, the Leafs will make the playoffs.

The Leafs are in Philly tonight and will play against an undermanned Flyers team that has lost 3 in a row for the first time since last March. Danny Briere is still out and Ilya Bryzgalov will miss the game due to the flu. Jofferey Lupul will make a return to Philly to play his old team, he was never able to score more than 50 points as a Flyer and he already has 56 this season. I doubt that many Flyers fans will care/remember him. I see his relationship to the Flyers' fans similar to Leafs' fans relationship with Kyle Wellwood. He never did much for us and we often forget he is in the league until we see him on one of the three teams he has played for since Toronto, and Leafs fans say in unison: "Hey, that's Kyle Wellwood! I remember him..." and that is about it. Don't look for Simmonds or Hartnell to run Lupul or anything like that. Do, however, look for Kessel to score for the fourth game in a row or Grabovski's line to get back on track after being blanked in Tuesday's loss to Winnipeg. Prediction: 3-1 Toronto.

Until Claude Giroux wins the Conn Smythe for the Maple Leafs
-Riley

But I Have to Study...

Tonight has the capability to be one of the best nights of sports in recent memory. As a Leaf fan, the leafs have a chance to beat the best team in the NHL tonight, the New York Rangers because Martin Biron will get the start and we are at home. Tim Tebow is squaring off against Tom Brady in the AFC Divisional game, but he doesn’t have a chance to win, right? The Raptors are playing the NBA leading Chicago Bulls tonight so if there is a commercial in the Leafs game, the Football game, the Intercontinental Curling Championships and The King’s Speech, feel free to tune in. Finally, arguably the most anticipated game of the NBA season so far will tip off at 10:30pm EST when the Lakers and Clippers play for the first time this season.

Approximately 7:09 pm. Leafs and Rangers drop the Puck. Right now we (the Leafs) are sitting in 7^th place and a win tonight would bump us into 6^th. Phil Kessel has gone two games without a point for the first time this season, which in the long run is probably a good thing; the slump (I love that he is so good that I can call two scoreless games a slump) will help him mature as a player. This is the first time in his five seasons in the NHL that he has been consistent on a game-to-game basis, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts tonight. Ron Wilson hasn’t said who will get the start in between the pipes tonight but I would not be surprised to see James Reimer in goal after a shaky start from The Monster last night that essentially cost us the game. Prediction: Leafs win 4-2 and Joey Crabb scores his first goal at the ACC this season.

Approximately 8:04. Broncos win the coin toss (there is no such thing as luck when Tebow is involved, duh!) Matt Prater kicks a touchback. Then one of two things will happen. Tebow will lose, as he should, or Tebow will win. The way that the whole world is watching (the Steelers vs. Broncos game was the most watched Wild Card game ever) there is no other outcome. Yes, if Tebow loses it will most likely be due to Tom Brady scoring more points than Tebow is capable of, but Brady will not receive as much credit as he should. And if Tebow wins, well, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised anymore. But I, as a long time football fan, watch Tebow, and watch Brady, and simply say “but he can’t win!” well, I can’t wait to see what happens. Prediction: I am going to do what Mike Wilbon did on Pardon the Interruption yesterday and not say anything simply because I will be wrong.

Also at around 8pm, Amir Johnson will win the tip off for the Raptors, then Rasual Butler will hit a shot for the Raptors to go up 2-0, and that will be the extent to our success. The Raptors play terrible offense and the Bulls are the best defensive team in the NBA. But hey, I am not going to give up on the Raptors just yet, I will take the Raptors at +20 simply because the Bulls will have that lead at the end of the 3^rd and will rest their starters for the fourth. Prediction: 89-72 Chicago.

Finally, at approximately TEBOW TIME (10:41pm) the Lakers and Clippers will play for the first time this season. Kobe Bryant is proving that he is not too old, not the seventh best player in the NBA (as ESPN ranked him before this season) and most importantly that he is a viable candidate for MVP this season, at age 34. I mean the man is insane, he has a torn ligament in his wrist but he wants to play so badly that he takes a shot of cortisone before every game and has said multiple times that his hand is so numb he can’t even feel the ball in his hand. Well, three straight 40+ point games has silenced everyone, and tonight’s game he will have extra(!) incentive to win because the temporary title of best team in L.A. is on the line tonight. Blake Griffin will do something awesome, Andrew Bynum will dunk over him and Chris Paul will do Chris Paul type things. It will be an awesome game. Prediction: Kobe wants it too badly, 106-102 Lakers.

Until Chris Paul throws an Alley-oop to Jarryd Bayless. 

Riley 

Thank You, Greedy Old Men

We have just concluded our first full week of the 2011-2012 NBA season, and it was incredible. The Miami Heat are playing like the team we know they are, and it is scary. Kevin Durant is playing with a chip on his shoulder and James Harden's beard is better than ever. Ricky Rubio is already becoming one of the most exciting players in the NBA and with some help from Kevin Love and Michael Beasley the Timberwolves could have a legitimate chance at the playoffs this season. And, as much as it pains me to say it, the Raptors are still longshots in the playoff race. Yes, all this just sounds like normal headlines that would emerge at the start of an NBA season, so what makes this year different? To put it simply, the shortened schedule. With teams playing 4 games in 5 nights multiple times and the NBA's first ever back-to-back-to-back scheduled games, NBA fans will be treated to good basketball every single night.

One thing that the shortened season will bring us is upsets that would otherwise be impossible. Fatigue will have huge tolls on every team but especially older ones. The Celtics, Spurs and Lakers were three of the top 6 teams in the NBA last season but I would be surprised to see any of them finish in the top 4 of their respective conferences. With multiple games every single night and different factors playing into every different game (fatigue, travel schedule etc.) The NBA is going to have one of it's most exciting seasons in history.

In the NBA right now, there are essentially 8 superstars, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitski and Carmelo Anthony. The NBA knows this, and as the great people that they are, they chose to have these players play each other a lot. Because of the shortened season, Eastern Conference teams only play 3 teams from the West twice, and vice versa. The Heat got OKC, the Lakers and Dallas, not the easiest schedule, but at least it's the most entertaining! OKC got Orlando, Boston and Miami. And to put this into perspective, the Kings will play the Pistons, New Jersey and Charlotte, (three of the worst teams in the East.) The point is, the list of title contenders playing title contenders in the regular season is going to be such a regular thing this season that we are almost going to spoil ourselves. There is only one day with fewer than two games until February and on that night the Knicks play the Celtics and OKC plays the Clippers.

Some early season things to look out for and a few predictions:

Rajon Rondo will challenge Derrick Rose for the title of best point guard in the East. He recorded the first triple double of the season on Sunday with 18 points, 11 rebounds and 14 assists.

Derrick Rose will notice that Rondo has gotten better, and he will then up his game to a totally new level. Look for Rose to average 25 points a game this season (he averaged just under 21 last season.)

Lebron and KD to duke it out for the scoring title. Both have already scored over 30 points in this young season twice.

The Heat, Trail Blazers and Thunder are all still undefeated and I don't think many people will be surprised to see the Thunder and Heat atop their respective conferences when the All-Star break rolls around.

Happy Holidays to all.
Until Derrick Rose throws an alley-oop to Demar DeRozan wearing a Raptors uniform
-Riley